Illinois State Water Survey Illinois State Climatologist

Updated El Nino Forecast

There is a 95% chance that El Niño will continue through winter and gradually weaken through spring 2016, according to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center today. That remains essentially unchanged from last month’s outlook. As noted in a earlier post, this increases the chances of a mild winter in Illinois. Here are the recent sea […]

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Latest Outlook for Winter in the US

Today the NOAA Climate Prediction Center released their latest winter forecast. First, there are two important notes about the winter forecast. One is that El Niño has not arrived yet, and if it does, it is expected to be mild. The other point is that the current conditions are not always a reliable predictor of […]

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Chance of a Repeat of Last Winter

Probably the most frequently asked question I get these days is “Will this winter be as bad as last winter?” I discussed this a bit in an earlier post. The National Weather Service forecast does not show a repeat of last winter based in part on winter trends and the possible arrival of El Niño. Another […]

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